Saturday, June 27, 2009

Ladies Seat Campaign

Hi Pune, I am from Himachal working in Pune(HInjewadi).
Whenever I travel through the Local Buses(service is good as compared to my place,far better) the only disheartening thing is that people don't sit on the proper side in the bus. The "complete" left hand side seats (which is although ambiguous in itself) are reserved for the ladies but I rarely see ladies sitting on them.
Most of the times those seats are occupied by "Gentleman" of all sorts and mostly by the IT people(I am also of that race/creed/breed) and the ladies are standing :(
Be it corporation,Station, guys have made it a habit to sit on the ladies seat.
So what I want "us" to do is to start an Online campaign to make the things right :) In this, this blog can help me, please take into consideration, this proposal.
I have prepared a plan, to carry on with this plan I need the support of fellow blogger s.
Through this, we will try to make people aware of their rights and the Transport authorities aware of their responsibility, because I hardly see them doing the right thing and In case it is a matter of giving "change" they will star hurling abuses at you in Marathi, wish is my personal experience :(
I would like to join the community as well :) waiting for your response
Tarun Goel

I mailed the administrator when I was in Pune, now I have left Pune, but still Online Campaign can be started. The mail was sent on Sun, Mar 1, 2009, but at that time THIS blog was in hibernation, I guess :), so couldn't proceed.
But someone has said once, better late than never :)
Waiting for response(s)

Monday, June 22, 2009

Disgusted by Investment Bankers

I am finance professional with aspiration to become a significant investment banker in the global market. So with the same motive I do keep a close watch on capital markets & respected Investment Bankers of India & world. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is considered to be Indian version of Warren Buffet & a highly respectable Investment Banker, or so I used to think before today.

The reason the title of the article reads the way it is is that I watched his interview on CNBC TV18 today. Refer this link to get a brief of what he said. I should make a disclosure before I say anything further, I Really used to adore him till today. But in this interview all he was doing is to show that he knows how to count & he knows the technical levels of Nifty. He uttered all possible numbers in the span of 10 minutes or so. Thank god he stopped short of saying that Nifty could see a level of 1500 or may be say 8000 this year.

He said one of the scenarios could be that Nifty hits 6100 or higher then comes back to 3300-3500 & consolidates for 3-4 years at that level. Again in another question to him, he said he is really sure about the GDP growth in India & we could see a double digit GDP growth number in coming years. So now can anyone tell me if he is so sure about economy, then how on earth the scenario he mentioned is possible? To hit double digit GDP growth numbers the Nifty constituents have to grow at least by 20% y-o-y, which justifies a P/E ratio for Nifty of about 20-22 at least. Nifty current earnings are about Rs. 210 for the FY08-09. There is no negative growth in earning of Nifty as a whole. So assume 5% growth on Nifty which is the most pessimistic figure I can come to as of now. This still gives earnings for Nifty of about Rs. 221 for FY09-10 & range for Nifty would be 4400-4800 going by the history. Remember this is my most pessimistic target! So how could you justify a double digit growth for GDP from now on & still reaching levels of 3300-3500 & consolidate there for 3-4 years. There is only one sane explanation for the prediction; India would need to go through one of the worst recessions since 1991. Then may the god help us!

The only conclusion I could reach after watching the interview is that either Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has no clue where the markets would be heading (which I think is highly unlikely) or he is just trying to fool the viewers in the bright sunshine. In both cases I sincerely feel he should not be appearing on TV & expressing his opinions. Because the all the Investment bankers on Wall Street have earned very bad name for themselves in the downfall of Investment Banking as we used to know, & he should not add to the bad reputation. This is really detrimental for the people like yours truly, who aspire to be an Investment Banker & I sincerely do no wish to stand in the line of a breed that becomes most despicable after the politicians of course. So my earnest requests to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is either guide people to right direction or just say, “I have no clue where market is heading.” or “I would not like to tell you & lose my opportunity to make money from it.”

The end result is I have lost one of my most venerable deities to cheapest level of lying & obfuscating hapless investors who are already floundering in darkness.

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

GM to undergo Genetic Modification

GM or you may call it General Motors, which was regarded as a a champion of American Manufacturing prowess and which formed the part of " The BIG 3" trio of Detroit Auto Companies filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy on June 1, 09. This event was preceded by series of high level talks between GM and its shareholders to agree to a Debt Restructuring plan but it did not materialize due to tough stand taken by Bond holders. Let me remind that not only one of the BIG 3 is surviving i.e FORD Motor Company which has politely refused any govt. support. Chrysle also went Bankrupt about a month ago and is about to be sold to group led by FIAT of Italy.

GM which was the world's largest Car maker till 2008 filed for bankruptcy to create a smaller company with manageable balance sheets and which could compete in throat cut competiton of world markets. GM succumbed to falling Sales and rising GAS prices. At the time of bankruptcy GM reported $82.3 Billion Dollars of Assets as compared to $173 Billion of Debt obligations. The event is just like sinking of TITANIC, said Stephen Pope, global strategist at Cantor in London. It is the largest Automobile Bankruptcy ever.

As a part of restructuring US govt. would conver most of its $50 Billion of debt to GM( 30 + 20 earlier) into equity.This would translate into a 60% stake in " NEW GM". Another $9.5 Billion would come from Canadian Govt. GM in its bankruptcy filing named major debtors viz. Wilmington Trust($22.8Billion Dollars), UAW( United Aerospace, Automobile and Agricultral Implement workers of US), $20.6 Billion USD and Deutsche Bank $4.4 Billion.

GM also has to present Govt a proposal mentioning how it would rise on its feet as a more cost competitive company with a sstrong portfolio of fuel efficient small cars. GM will have to shed some of its brands like PONTIAC,HUMMER,SAAB,SATURN while it can retain CHEVROLET, BUICK will be retained by new GM.

With this GM will make an exit from DJIA(Dow Jones Industrial Average) along with another US Biggie CITGROUP.